Race for the Champions League: Ten games to go

Plenty has happened since United's last top-flight outing, the 2-0 win over Everton on 9 March.

Tottenham Hotspur's emphatic 4-0 away win over the team directly above them, Aston Villa, boosted the hopes of the North Londoners as Ange Postecoglou's side moved two points behind Unai Emery’s men the following day.

However, Spurs were then beaten at Fulham, 3-0, before the international break, while Villa drew 1-1 at West Ham in a game they thought they'd lost late on, only for Tomas Soucek's stoppage-time effort to be ruled out by VAR for handball.

The Reds are six points back from Spurs and nine behind Villa, with the latter having played an extra game.

There is still over a quarter of the campaign left to run and the new Champions League format, which comes into play next season, is further confusing matters. English clubs could have five places in the tournament, rather than the usual four, if our country's coefficient is ranked first or second best in Europe. We’re currently behind Italy and Germany in that table, but with the potential to overtake them.

It’s still too early then to know exactly what will be required in terms of our final league position, but here’s how the top-flight picture currently looks between fourth and sixth places as we look at the run-ins for Villa, Spurs and United…

ASTON VILLA
P29 W17 D5 L7 GD+18 PTS 56

Villa haven’t played in the European Cup since they were defending champions in 1982/83, but the Midlanders have high hopes of competing next term following a stellar 15 months under Emery. The Villans did look capable of mounting an unlikely title challenge before a run of three defeats in six games after Christmas, two of them to United, tempered expectations.

A season-ending injury to key midfielder Boubacar Kamara, suffered in our 2-1 victory at Villa Park in February, also looked to be crucial, but a run of three straight victories leaves their position looking healthy, even allowing for the heavy reverse to Spurs and draw at West Ham.

They do face a tricky-looking schedule, with games against all three title challengers and a trip to Europe-chasing Brighton on the horizon. This season’s continental programme could also be a factor, with Villa being the current bookmakers’ favourites to win the Europa Conference League. Emery is a European specialist and they face Lille in the quarter-finals of that competition.

TOTTENHAM
P28 W16 D5 L7 GD+17 PTS 53

With James Maddison and Cristian Romero now back in the side after injury, Tottenham have steadied following a significant slump in the autumn, where they lost four out of five games after a promising start had them top of the table in early November. Having finished eighth last season, there are no European commitments for Postecoglou’s men, while they are also out of both cups, meaning full focus can be on the race for Champions League football.

Eight wins, two draws and three defeats from the last 13 encounters suggests the Lilywhites do have the required staying power, although the reverse at Fulham was disappointing and they will hope Micky van de Ven is not confined to the treatment table for too long.

Like Villa, Spurs could yet be king-makers, as they still have to face each of the top three. Tottenham’s away form has been patchy – the victory at Villa was only their second on the road since October – and visits to London rivals West Ham and Chelsea could be challenging. They’ll also be hoping to fare better at St James’ Park this season, having been hammered 6-1 there by Newcastle last April.

UNITED
P28 W15 D2 L11 GD0 PTS 47

Erik ten Hag has had to deal with a large number of injuries in his sophomore season, but United’s results have improved in 2024, even considering the disappointing defeats to Fulham and Manchester City. Both reverses came in the absence of Rasmus Hojlund, who has scored in six straight league games since opening his account against Aston Villa, and the Dane will be vital for the Reds in the run-in – he returned in our extraordinary 4-3 victory over Liverpool at Old Trafford in the Emirates FA Cup.

Meetings with Chelsea and Liverpool (again) follow hot on the heels of the trip to Brentford and it’s hard not to see that trio of matches as pivotal in deciding how the season plays out. Should we still be in the mix, the Old Trafford date against Arsenal in May also jumps off the page.

Scroll down to see the complete list of fixtures for all three teams.

VILLA*

30 Mar: Wolves (H)
3 Apr: Manchester City (A)
6 Apr: Brentford (H)
14 Apr: Arsenal (A)
21 Apr: Bournemouth (H)
27 Apr: Chelsea (H)
4 May: Brighton (A)
11 May: Liverpool (H)
19 May: Crystal Palace (A)

TOTTENHAM*

30 Mar: Luton (H)
2 Apr: West Ham (A)
8 Apr: Nottingham Forest (H)
13 Apr: Newcastle (A)
28 Apr: Arsenal (H)
4 May: Liverpool (A)
11 May: Burnley (H)
19 May: Sheffield United (A)
TBC: Chelsea (A)
TBC: Manchester City (H)

UNITED*

30 Mar: Brentford (A)
4 Apr: Chelsea (A)
7 Apr: Liverpool (H)
13 Apr: Bournemouth (A)
24 Apr: Sheffield United (H)
27 Apr: Burnley (H)
4 May: Crystal Palace (A)
11 May: Arsenal (H)
19 May: Brighton (A)
TBC: Newcastle (H)

*Only games up to and including 28 April have been given confirmed dates and kick-off times.