Why is it important for United to top the group?

Erik ten Hag made his thoughts known ahead of Manchester United’s previous Europa League outing, the 1-0 victory over Omonia Nicosia at Old Trafford, and the strong starting line-ups selected by the Dutchman throughout the European campaign certainly reflect this stance.

United’s mission is to top Group E, but why is that so important to Ten Hag and his men?

As in previous seasons, the top two teams in each pool progress further in the competition, but a key format change, enacted in the summer of 2021, means it is now massively advantageous to be a group winner.

This is because first-placed teams go straight through to the round of 16, to be played in March.

The runners-up, meanwhile, have to endure an extra knockout stage – in this case, a two-legged play-off, in February, against one of the eight third-placed Champions League sides.

In an already packed schedule, rendered even busier by the need to fit in two Premier League games postponed during September, this is a fate Ten Hag - and most other clubs, for that matter - will want to avoid.

The relative strength of the sides dropping out of this season’s Champions League is something to consider too.

Six-time Europa League winners Sevilla will participate in the play-offs after Christmas, as will fellow La Liga giants Barcelona.

Atletico Madrid and Juventus - both Champions League finalists during the last decade - and Ten Hag's former club Ajax could also be involved.

GROUP E PERMUTATIONS

So, what do United need from our final two games to overhaul Real Sociedad and clinch that coveted top spot?

We are currently three points behind the San Sebastian outfit in Group E, with Imanol Alguacil’s men having beaten us 1-0 at Old Trafford back in September’s opening fixture.

Assuming we win our last two group games and the La Liga side overcome Omonia in Nicosia on Thursday, both sides will end on 15 points. The head-to-head record between the teams – the primary tiebreaker used by UEFA in this competition – would then be utilised.

A one-goal victory in the final game against Real Sociedad is unlikely to be enough for us to finish top, as the head-to-head records would then be equal and the next tiebreaker – goal difference across the group – would be used. The Spaniards are currently four goals ahead in that respect.

So, assuming that Thursday’s results go the way of United and Real Sociedad without a huge swing in goal difference, Ten Hag’s side would need to win by two goals or more at Reale Arena for us to top Group E and avoid those extra two games in the play-offs.

It’s worth noting that even a one-goal defeat to Sheriff this week would assure United’s progress from the group, as we beat the Moldovan champions 2-0 last month and would therefore come out on top in terms of head-to-head record, even if they manage to match our points tally.